Where did the pollsters go wrong?

The Journalistic outlets invest countless dollars in their polling, each taking pride in their ability to predict and project the outcome of the election with the greatest accuracy. And they all went wrong.

We’ll hear analysis after analysis, excuse after excuse, from the pundits over the next few days about how they missed this. You will find lengthy article after lengthy article. But what is the core reason?

Simple. The pollsters work in an unrealistic vacuum, seeking to distill the human heart and soul down to only numbers.

The modeling, based on quantitative data alone, did not provide the insight necessary to understand the the soul of the population. While it tracks answers, it does not dig into the emotional feelings and emotional angles of those surveyed.

I love numbers and statistics, they are wonderful, and necessary. We need them for proper decision making in all aspects of our lives and business. However, taken alone, nuance is lost, resulting in the breakdown of these models. It leaves out change.  It leaves out the natural chaos and entropy that comes along with groups of humanity. It leaves out natural insight and intution.

At our hearts, we are all emotional creatures, and one cannot fully quantify that.

You can only gain this insight through persistent and patient conversations with people in their natural settings. Not through focus groups, not through phone calls with prescribed questions, but through the human touch, the face to face interaction of people on the street, in their homes, in their businesses, while shopping, with their children.

Let’s talk more about this, and how a combination of quantitative and qualitative research can aid your business.

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